This type of corroborating intel is what George Smiley, the mole hunter in the British TV series, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, called “fools gold.” It looks like the real deal but, when properly evaluated, does not tell you anything you don’t already know. and European military and intelligence officers. NATO’s robust ISR capabilities makes it highly likely that those locations were already known to the U.S.
Let me make one obvious point from a counter intelligence standpoint - providing NATO with the locations of Russian units is the equivalent of giving Eskimos a truck load of snow in January. This is strong circumstantial evidence that Prigozhin not only went rogue, he became a traitor. Also, according to documents allegedly posted to Discord by Airman Jack Teixeira, Prigozhin provided Ukraine/NATO with locations of Russian units in the Donbass. It was a month or so later that Prigozhin launches scathing verbal attacks on Russian Defense Minster Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov. Pay particular attention to the timing - i.e., a meeting in January. I believe that Steve’s sources on this are solid. Similarly there are reports that he also was talking to a number of special force units inside Russia, asking them to join him. Some sources say that he also flew to Africa, where Wagner forces are operational, to hold a meeting with Ukrainian intelligence officials. Sources report that Prigozhin had been in touch with Ukrainian military intelligence (known as the HUR MO), at least since last January. It turns out, however, there was more to it than that. Along with that, Prigozhin charged that the army leadership was corrupt, that they refused to defend his flanks during the Bakhmut operation, and that they were losing massively in the Ukraine war.
Among these were constant, and provably false, accusations that he was not getting enough ammunition to fight in Bakhmut. To launch his operation, Prigozhin took a number of steps over a period of the past six or more months. intelligence and defense community and he drops a bit of a metaphorical bombshell by revealing Prigozhin was in contact with Ukrainian military intelligence: defense hand posted an excellent overview at his substack, “ What Didn’t Happen in Russia - There was no uprising and Prigozhin couldn’t deliver what he promised.” Steve is still well-plugged into the U.S. Some have posed the false dichotomy of having to choose “real coup” versus “pretend coup.” That approach ignores some troubling irregularities and facts, which point to a sophisticated double cross operation.
There is still no consensus about the motive for Yevgeny Prigozhin’s and there is a lot of speculation.
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